Sunday, November 19, 2017

Nicholas Kristof strikes out

He is seriously misleading at best:

Charitably, "often" isn't intended to be synonymous with "tend to", "usually", or any other word or phrase that indicates liberals are more likely to live 'family values' than conservatives do. Instead, Kristof is taken to be merely stating the bland and obvious fact that there are some liberals who often family value better than some conservatives do, just as there are some women who are taller than some men.

To continue with the undeserved grant of magnanimity, it must also be assumed that the evidence offered--that these indicators tend to look better in blue states than in red states--is incidental to the assertion rather than serving as evidence for it.

One obvious reason for the blue state-red state disparities is that red states are 26% blacker than blue states are. The larger black populations in red states make all of the indicators Kristof mentions worse than the smaller black populations in blue states do, but the black populations in those red states--like blacks everywhere--overwhelmingly vote for the left.

Another reason is laid out in Andrew Gelman's book Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State which, using data from the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections, shows that while across the country Republicans tend to be wealthier than Democrats, that trend is more pronounced in red states than it is in blue states.

That is, in blue states there isn't much difference in class and status between Democrat and Republican voters. In red states, however, Republicans tend to be of higher status and social class than Democrats.

Given the positive relationship between wealth and desirable outcomes on the indicators Kristof includes, this means that--especially in red states--it is those on the left who are disproportionately having the teen births, getting divorced, cheating on spouses, and renting hookers. Kristof is attributing the poor outcomes largely caused by these mostly Democrat voters in red states--where leftists tend to congregate at the bottom of the social order--on conservatives in general.

Using the GSS, the following tables show, by political orientation, the percentages of first births conceived by teenage parents, the percentages of ever-married people who were either divorced or separated at their time of participation in the survey*, the percentages who have cheated on a spouse, and the percentages who have paid for sex. The first table shows total population results. For contemporary relevance, all responses are from 2000 onward. Sample sizes are large--the smallest N for any of the results presented is 3,946:

The second table shows the same restricted to non-Hispanic whites:

Kristof goes 0-for-4. Self-identified conservatives do a better job embodying the family values they "preach" than self-identified liberals do.

* This method counts those who've remarried as "married" rather than as "divorced" or "separated". It consequently understates the number of marriages that have ended in divorce or separation but there is no obvious reason why this should systematically 'favor' liberals or conservatives in terms of perceived marital success.

GSS variables used: EVSTRAY(1-2), MARITAL(1,3,4), AGEKDBRN(10-19), EVPAIDSX, RACECEN1(1), HISPANIC(1), YEAR(2000-2016), POLVIEWS(1-2)(5-6)

Saturday, November 18, 2017

White woes

Via Z-Man, more generational survey data to chew on. This one explicitly and almost exclusively focuses on race among those aged 18-34 (mostly millennials but also the leading edge of Gen Z), so I'll make a tl;dr series of observations on it here.

- Cathy J. Cohen is the founder and principal investigator of the survey, so it's not particularly surprising that "Latinx" is used throughout in lieu of the more conventional "Hispanic" or "Latino". Incidentally, the plural of Latinx is "Latinxs" rather than "Latinxes". I wouldn't have thought! Taking a cue from Jordan Peterson, "Hispanic" will continue to be used as the description of choice here, though.

Nor is it surprising that in the section asking about which ethnic--yes, (((ethnic))), not racial--groups have the most economic power in the country, "Jews" are not included among the list of potential choices. "Whites" are and they come in on top, followed by Asians.

It's also unsurprising that the survey deals with sex differences in the following manner. Sample excerpt, my emphasis:
... signaling an important and consequential divide between Millennials that identify as men and women ...
However, no variation of the pronoun "Xir" appears in the survey, suggesting that at least one of Cohen's grandparents is a gentile.

Speaking of identifying, the string "identi"--not counting a single occurrence in the word "presidential"--shows up 29 times in the survey report. The cucks urging those on the right to reject identity politics are doing a tired Rush Limbaugh redux from the nineties. It was quixotic then and it's suicidal now.

Identitarianism is the future. Find your team now or prepare to be hanged alone in the future.

- A majority--52%--of blacks identify "racism" from a list of 22 possible choices as one of the top three most important problems in the contemporary US, with 29% of blacks identifying it as the single most important problem in the country (health care comes in at a distant second, at 13%).

No matter what happens, this will never end. No amount of prostration to or deification of blacks will mollify them. Transferring trillions more in various welfare programs from non-blacks to blacks won't do it, either. It's with us as long as blacks are with us.

Large numbers of Hispanics and Asians--33% and 32%, respectively--also put racism in the top three. All racial problems in the US will continue to accentuate rather than ameliorate as time goes on.

In contrast, the issue of "women's rights" gets single-digits across the color spectrum, with just 4% of the total survey pool prioritizing it.

"Military strength" is another one that elicits yawns, with only 5% of respondents pointing to it. It's going to be increasingly difficult for an internal empire of squabbling tribes to maintain a functioning external empire outside its own crumbling borders.

- While there's scarcely a more reliable social formula than Diversity + Proximity = War, lots of millennials don't think Diversatopia can come fast enough. Interestingly, whites and blacks--Old Stock Americans--are more wary of increasing Diversity! than the new settlers are:

Pulled directly from the survey--color scheme designed to be unintuitive as Noticing is evil
- While a slight plurality, 23%-19%, of whites think ill of Black Lives Matter, non-whites are supportive. Blacks cheer BLM on 56%-5%. Hispanics and Asians do, too, by respective margins of 27%-10% and 43%-11%. Natural Republicans, those Asians are!

- White support for free speech and non-white opposition to it is a hobby horse of mine, and this survey doesn't disappoint.

The following graph shows free speech index scores derived from responses to the statement that "All groups should be entitled to hold parades and demonstrations, even if they represent causes most Americans oppose, such as communism, Nazis, or white supremacy". The index scores are created by assigning +2 points for "strongly agree" responses, +1 point for "somewhat agree", 0 points for "somewhat disagree", and -1 point for "strongly disagree":

- There's often consternation expressed among media types who report on the rightward shift of white Gen Zers. It's compounded by the fact that on the chic social issues of the day like same-sex marriage and drug legalization, Zyklons aren't "conservative" at all. But on issues of identity, they are (in the generally accepted parlance--as Richard Spencer argues, it's not clear why identitarianism is right or left, it's simply an inevitable necessity brought on by increasing diversity). They are more so than millennials, Gen Xers, and possibly even Boomers.

When America was over 80% white, special privileges for non-whites weren't something that effected--and affected--most whites. Only those on the very bottom of society had much to lose. That America is long gone.

In today's disUnited States of Diversity, white Zyklons are teetering on the edge of minority status. Special privileges for non-whites threatens the prospects of the vast majority of them. They're reacting accordingly.

To the question "Do you agree or disagree that discrimination against whites has become as big a problem as discrimination against blacks and other minorities?", whites split almost evenly with 48% agreeing and 51% disagreeing. These responses are mostly from millennials, with a dash of the front end of Gen Z thrown in. I suspect that whites currently in junior high and high school will push that "agree" figure over 50% in the coming years, probably drastically so.

- Individualism is a(n outbred) white thing. The following table shows an individualism index score, by race, computed by taking percentages of respondents who said they are "not very similar" to other members of their own race and subtracting it from the percentages of respondents who said they are "very similar" to other members of their own race. The higher the score, the more individualistic the group:


If the "Asian" category didn't amalgamate people as disparate as the Japanese and Sri Lankans, the Asian score would likely move down towards NAM levels.

Diversatopia is necessarily collectivist, lolbertarians be damned.

- Relatedly, while 85% of whites think whites and non-whites "share common problems and can be political allies", just 49% of non-whites think the same.

That's right, a slim majority of non-whites think white and non-whites cannot be political allies. Ekow Yankah is speaking on behalf of huge numbers of non-whites.

Political dissolution now or later, then?

Friday, November 17, 2017

Liberalism is a mental disorder?

The apoplectic reaction to the questionable allegations about Roy Moore from nearly four decades ago is something to behold. To the extent they are accurate, they are evidence of a healthy--perhaps too healthy!--male sex drive, the kind of thing normal men fantasize about. This is in stark contrast to the pathological degeneracy of Weinstein and Louis CK, men who engaged in behavior that is repugnant to well-nigh everyone.

Some of the hatred for Moore is so viscerally unhinged as to suggest mental illness in those expressing it. Indeed, liberals have worse mental health than conservatives do. The percentages of whites who report having experienced poor mental health in the previous 30 days, by political orientation (N = 5,530; for contemporary relevance all responses are from 2000 onward):

Among those who suffer from especially poor mental health--experiencing it at least 15 of the last 30 days--the differences by political orientation are even more pronounced. Again for whites since 2000:

A sitting senator, Bob Menendez, is alleged to have paid for underage prostitutes while occupying his august position. The current case ended in mistrial, but the evidence against Menendez is stronger than it is against Moore, and Menendez is said to have been engaged in this stuff last year, not last century.

Who? Whom? explains a lot, but the audacity of such blatantly selective outrage still seems remarkable.

Parenthetically, Who? Whom? is not synonymous with partisanship--not even close in this case. Mitch McConnell is calling for Moore to drop out of the Alabama senate race but hasn't called for Menendez to resign the senate seat he currently holds! He hasn't called for Al Franken to, either.

The special election in December is the current active front in the middle American insurgency against the bipartisan Cloud People. We can imagine the extent to which Moore's anti-establishment shitlord instincts are being accentuated through this process. Or we can simply watch the man in action.

If he wins, he'll work to make their lives a living hell. It's why he must win.

GSS variables used: MNLTHLTH(0)(15-30), RACECEN1(1), HISPANIC(1), POLVIEWS(1-2)(3-5)(6-7)

Thursday, November 16, 2017

Double-digit increase in anti-White hate crime from 2015 to 2016

From recently released FBI hate crime statistics, we find the number of white hate crime (HC) offenders declined by 3.0% from 2015 to 2016 while the number of black hate crime offenders grew by 15.2% over the same time period.

Similarly, the number of anti-White hate crime incidents increased 14.9% between 2015 and 2016 while the number of anti-Black hate crime incidents marginally decreased by 0.3% over the same time period.

HC offenders who are...Δ'15-'16

Incidents of...Δ'15-'16
Anti-White HC+14.9%
Anti-Black HC-0.3%

Trump is obviously to blame here. All the supporters he brought out to rallies or just around town in their MAGA gear were fostering an oppressive atmosphere of hate. It is poetic justice, then, that these haters turned out to be the victims of the hatred they so hatefully released unto the world!

Parenthetically, in absolute numbers blacks are heavily overrepresented both as perpetrators of and victims of hate crimes. The sliver of crime with the designated "hate" prefix is politically charged, primarily serving as a way of making black criminality and victimology appear much more sympathetic towards blacks than figures on total criminality do.

Comprising far less than 1% of all crime, hate crimes tell us little about the actual nature of criminality in the country. The directional changes are worth noting, however.

Tuesday, November 14, 2017

Epigonian aesthetics

Commenter Candide III:
Please, Anepigone, please don't do this to graphs. Yes, the numbers are there, but visual impressions count, and your graph, with the bottom at 40%, gives the misleading impression that the Mohammedans' support is only half of even blacks' (never mind that all this is self-reported and not revealed-preference) when really the ratio of the largest to the smallest bar is less than two. It's bad enough that everyone else does this with the small print, but Carlylean veracity is the only way for us.
Here is the graph he's referring to:

The sentiment is well received. The main reason it was presented as such in this particular case is because the questions considered were dichotomous ones without "don't know", "no opinion", etc as possible responses. To have visually expressed this across a fully displayed y-axis would've looked like this:

The numbers are all plainly included so it's not much of a bait-and-switch. If the worry is that it'll leave a skewed impression for those who don't give it more than a glance, well, I'm not writing in a scientific publication and I do have a subjective position on just about everything that is posted on.

Here are a couple of other ways the same data could've been presented. This one possibly would've been more objectionable (it's not uncommon for polling outfits to restrict the upper end of the y-axis):

And this one definitely would have been:

That it's a coin toss as to whether or not a Muslim living in America thinks controversial speakers should be permitted to speak in public and that 1-in-3 NAMs believes they should be precluded from doing so is quite jolting for a lot of people, and my intention is to design the graphic accordingly.

GSS variables used: SPKRAC, SPKHOMO, SPKCOM, SPKATH, SPKMIL, RACECEN1(1)(2)(4-10), HISPANIC(1)(2-50), RELIG(3)(9), POLVIEWS(1-3)(4)(5-7)